Rating Action: Moody's changes Victoria's outlook to stable from negativeGlobal Credit Research - 21 Dec 2021London, 21 December 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today affirmed B1 corporate family rating (CFR), B1-PD probability of default rating and B1 rating of E250 million and E500 million backed senior secured notes issued by Victoria plc (Victoria or the company), a leading supplier of flooring products. The outlook on all ratings is changed to stable from negative.RATINGS RATIONALEThe change in outlook reflects improving operating performance achieved by Victoria this year with like-for-like revenue growing by 30% in the H1 fiscal 2022 ended September and Moody's adjusted leverage pro-forma for the acquisitions reducing to around 4x. The performance has been strong across all the company's segments, including soft flooring and ceramic tiles, although with somewhat weaker comparables in H1 fiscal 2021 (March to September 2020) when like-for-like sales were down by 13% due to the impact of the pandemic. Moody's expects the company to retain the positive momentum in sales, although margins will likely see some headwinds from the cost inflation over the next 12 months.The company also achieved good progress with its acquisitions plan signing eight deals with total EV of around GBP440 million and LTM EBITDA of around GBP65 million over the last 12 months. The largest transaction includes acquisition of Balta's (LSF9 Balta Issuer S.a r.l., B3 stable) rugs and UK carpets business, a GBP30-35 million EBITDA segment, which will allow Victoria to increase its market share in the UK soft flooring market and achieve some synergies in production and procurement. The numerous acquisitions create a degree of execution risks and may distract the management from the core business, however, the risk is mitigated by a solid track record of transformational M&As and their successful integration.Moody's notes that average acquisition multiple pre-synergies of 6x-7x is relatively low and estimates that Victoria uses approximately 40/60 equity/debt funding mix, which effectively reduces the company's Moody's adjusted leverage. Following the strong organic growth in H1 fiscal 2022 and pro-forma for the acquisitions Victoria's Moody's adjusted leverage has improved to around 4x -- a solid level for the current B1 rating.Victoria's B1 CFR reflects: (1) leading positions within the fragmented European soft flooring and ceramic tiles markets; (2) focus on independent retail channels with greater customer diversity and pricing power; (3) low exposure to the new construction segment; and (4) solid cash flow generation ability.The rating also reflects the company's (1) rapid pace of change through a recent history of transformative acquisitions; (2) activities in mature markets with limited growth and competitive pressures; (3) sale of consumer discretionary items with exposure to the economic cycle; and (4) raw material and currency exposures.LIQUIDITYThe company's liquidity is good with GBP167 million of cash on the balance sheet as of end September, as well as fully undrawn GBP120 million revolving credit facility (RCF) due February 2026. The company also plans to issue GBP150 million preferred shares to fund the acquisition from Balta. Moody's expects the company to generate positive free cash flows of approximately GBP50 million over the next 12 months. The RCF is subject to a net leverage springing covenant that is tested when the RCF is over 40% (i.e. GBP48 million) drawn.STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONSThe company's backed senior secured notes are rated B1, in line with the B1 CFR. A GBP120 million super senior RCF ranks ahead of the backed senior secured notes. There is also other debt within the company's financial structure, largely relating to pension obligations and deferred consideration. Security largely comprises share pledges and a debenture over assets in the UK and Australia, and guarantees are provided from material companies representing at least 80% of turnover, EBITDA and gross assets.RATING OUTLOOKThe stable outlook assumes that the company will continue to deliver positive organic growth in revenues and solid positive cash generation. It assumes that recent acquisitions will be integrated successfully. The outlook also assumes that the company will focus on adhering to its financial policy of maintaining net reported leverage at below 2.0x on a steady state basis and below 3.0x to finance acquisitions.FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGSAn upgrade in the ratings would require a further period of growth in revenues and profitability. Quantitatively the ratings could be upgraded if Moody's-adjusted leverage reduces towards 3.5x, with EBIT / interest improving towards 3x and the company maintaining satisfactory liquidity.The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's-adjusted leverage is sustained above 5x, if free cash flow / debt reduces towards zero for a prolonged period, or if liquidity concerns arise.ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONSThe company is LSE listed and subject to the UK Corporate Governance Code. The company's Board includes six members, including four non-executive directors. Geoffrey Wilding, the Executive Chairman, and Zachary Sternberg, a non-Executive Director and co-founder of the Spruce House Partnership, represent two largest shareholders who jointly own 38.2% of the company's shares.PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGYThe principal methodology used in these ratings was Consumer Durables published in September 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1276767. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.COMPANY PROFILEVictoria plc was founded in 1895 in the United Kingdom, and is an international designer, manufacturer and distributor of flooring products across carpets, ceramic tiles, underlay, luxury vinyl tile, artificial grass and flooring accessories. Victoria is listed on AIM in London with a market capitalisation of GBP1.4 billion million (as of 15 December 2021). In LTM September 2021 pro-forma for the acquisitions the company generated GBP1.3 billion of revenue and GBP197 million of company adjusted EBITDA.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Egor Nikishin, CFA Asst Vice President - Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454 Richard Etheridge Associate Managing Director Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. 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